China’s LNG import decline refers to the ongoing year-on-year drop in liquefied natural gas purchases, driven by rising domestic production, increased pipeline supply, and subdued industrial demand.
Extending for ten consecutive months: August LNG imports are projected to fall approximately 9% year-on-year, continuing a ten-month decline streak.
Magnitude of the drop: Analysts forecast a 6–11% annual decline in LNG imports for 2025 compared to 2024’s ~76.7 million tons.
Mid-year slump: By June, imports were down about 12% year-on-year, with the first four months showing a steep fall from 29 million to 20 million tons.
These metrics point to a notable disruption in China’s LNG demand trajectory, the first such fall since 2022.
China has expanded its access to cheaper pipeline gas—notably from Russia and Central Asia via the Power of Siberia pipeline—and ramped up domestic gas output, making LNG comparatively less attractive.
China’s comfortable inventory levels diminish the urgency for spot purchases. High spot prices, coupled with limited appeal for expensive LNG cargoes, further suppress demand.
Tariffs and geopolitical dynamics—such as a 15% levy on U.S. LNG, a complete halt in U.S. LNG cargoes, and resale of existing imports—have forced a strategic shift toward Middle Eastern and Asia-Pacific suppliers.
China’s subdued orders contribute to a sharp drop in Asian spot LNG prices, with average prices down about 12% year-to-date.
With China reluctant on spot volumes, Europe and other Asian markets (notably Taiwan) are gaining, helping offset softer demand in Asia.
Taiwan stands alone in Asia with increased LNG intake—driven by its final nuclear reactor shutdown and forecasted above-average summer temperatures
Chinese policymakers may deepen domestic production and pipeline integration, especially given energy security concerns and ongoing trade frictions.
Energy analysts and investors should closely monitor industrial activity, weather trends, and price spreads to anticipate future shifts in LNG flows.