Global oil demand is expected to remain strong for decades to come, according to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The headline figure from the company’s latest outlook is that the world will continue consuming more than 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil beyond 2040. This projection underlines the enduring role of petroleum in the global energy market, even amid the transition to renewables and lower-carbon energy sources. In this blog post, we’ll unpack ADNOC’s demand forecast, explore the key drivers behind sustained consumption, and assess what this means for the petroleum industry in the years ahead.
ADNOC’s projection signals that global oil demand won’t peak and decline in the near term but instead will remain elevated well into the 2040s. For example, ADNOC’s upstream CEO stated that demand would continue above the 100 million bpd mark past 2040. A major part of this sustained demand comes from sectors such as aviation, petrochemicals, and advanced industry applications including artificial intelligence data centres that are less amenable to electrification in the short term.
Another driver cited is urbanisation and demographic growth. With billions of people projected to shift into cities by 2040, demand for energy-intensive materials, transport fuel, and power is rising. Consequently, ADNOC is also emphasising that oil will be used more and more for materials rather than purely for mobility, supporting demand trajectories well into the future.
As global demand stays elevated, ADNOC sees itself well-placed to help meet this need. The company emphasises that its production of lower-cost, lower-emission barrels positions it competitively in the evolving energy mix. Currently, the UAE’s production capacity is around 4.85 million bpd with a target of reaching 5 million bpd by 2027
One of the country’s major projects, the Upper Zakum oil field, is set to increase its output potential to 1.5 million bpd ahead of schedule, further supporting capacity growth. By expanding production and leveraging economies of scale, ADNOC is strategising to capture a meaningful share of the sustained oil-demand growth.
Sustained high demand places strong emphasis on investment in the energy sector. ADNOC leadership has flagged the need for about US $4 trillion annually in capital spending to support energy infrastructure worldwide including grids, data centres and oil/gas production. Such investment is seen as crucial to ensure supply keeps pace with demand, especially in sectors such as aviation and petrochemicals that continue to rely on oil.
From an industry-perspective, the projection that oil demand remains above 100 million bpd past 2040 challenges narratives that foresee a rapid decline in petroleum’s role. For players in the petroleum industry, this means that upstream, midstream and downstream operations may remain economically viable well into the coming decades. It also places a premium on cost-effectiveness, emissions-reduction credentials and technological innovation areas ADNOC is prioritising.
For decision-makers in the energy market, several key take-aways emerge. First, sustained demand above 100 million bpd suggests that oil will continue to play a central role in the energy mix, especially where alternatives are limited or costly. Second, companies that produce competitively and embrace lower-emission practices may gain an advantage in this environment. ADNOC’s focus on low-cost, low-emission barrels is a case in point.
Third, the industry must prepare for a dual challenge: meeting demand growth while navigating transitions to lower-carbon energy. This pushes exploration and production firms to balance scale and sustainability. Finally, investors and policy-makers should factor in the massive capital requirements highlighted by ADNOC to avoid bottlenecks in supply and infrastructure.
In summary, the outlook from ADNOC underscores that global oil demand is likely to exceed 100 million barrels per day well beyond 2040 driven by aviation, petrochemicals, urbanisation and deepening energy-intensive digitalisation. Companies like ADNOC that are expanding capacity and offering lower-emission barrels are positioning to capitalise on this trend. Meanwhile, the petroleum industry as a whole must navigate the twin imperatives of scale and sustainability, backed by significant investment. For anyone tracking the energy market, the message is clear: petroleum remains far from obsolete, and oil demand is set to remain robust for decades to come.