The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again identified its so-called missing barrels, though the term is misleading. Barrels of oil don’t physically go missing; rather, global oil demand has consistently been undercounted.
This issue resurfaced in the IEA’s May 2025 Oil Market Report (OMR), where a significant historical revision has been made: a cumulative upward adjustment of 343 million barrels. That’s nearly three and a half days’ worth of global oil consumption.
The notion of missing barrels is not new. Since as far back as 1997–98, the IEA has had to revise its data, with each episode ultimately pointing to underestimated demand. This time, the revisions affect the years 2022 through 2024, which were previously reported with inventory levels much higher than they turned out to be.
According to the IEA’s latest report:
These revisions have effectively flipped what was believed to be a supply surplus in those years into deficits, tightening the global oil balance. In an instant, what had been viewed as bearish conditions now appear far more bullish. Global storage levels, it turns out, are much lower than previously estimated.
This misalignment in assessing supply and demand carries weighty consequences. Inaccurate data not only distorts market sentiment and investment outlooks, but it can also influence public policy and long-term energy planning. It raises concerns about the IEA’s ongoing calls for reduced oil investment, particularly when past data consistently shows higher-than-expected consumption.
Critics are questioning why it took the Agency so long to adjust its data. While forecasting is inherently uncertain, historical data should be as precise as possible, as it forms the basis for forward-looking models and decisions.
Despite the revisions, the IEA still projects a supply surplus of 0.7 mb/d in 2025. But given the pattern, some wonder whether this too will be revised in the years ahead.
Adding to the irony, IEA’s Executive Director has often claimed that data always wins. Yet, the inconsistency in the Agency’s own numbers undermines confidence. Which version of the IEA’s data is the one that won?
Accurate data is not just technical, it’s foundational. It informs sentiment, guides investments, and ensures security in global energy systems. This latest recalibration underscores the need for greater transparency and accountability in how energy data is gathered and interpreted.
Ultimately, misjudging demand over several years is not just a statistical issue, it’s a strategic one, with implications that ripple across markets and economies.
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