On 5 July 2025, eight OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman announced a planned increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in collective oil production for August 2025, maintaining a gradual unwind from their previous voluntary cuts. This measured move reflects confidence in the global economic outlook and aims to balance supply with tightening fundamentals.
(Key terms: OPEC, production increase, market stability)
A virtual meeting on 5 July 2025 reaffirmed commitment to market fundamentals and low inventory levels.
OPEC+ will implement a 548 k bpd rise in August compared to July production a part of a monthly incremental plan initiated on 1 April 2025.
The group stressed flexibility, reserving the right to pause or reverse increases based on evolving conditions.
Members plan monthly meetings, with the next on 3 August 2025, to assess September quotas.
Ramping up production gradually helps keep global oil inventories low, reinforcing market confidence and preventing sharp price volatility. This is vital for energy security and price stability.
Member states also pledged to compensate for past overproduction since January 2024, enhancing trust under the Declaration of Cooperation and strengthening the role of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
The move reflects optimism in sustained global economic growth and a resurgence in demand, validated by low inventories encouraging a cautious return to normal supply levels.
This continued unwind is part of a strategy first set in December 2024, aimed at incrementally easing the 2.2 mbpd voluntary cuts. It balances between over-supplying the market and freeing up member capacity.
According to the IEA’s July 2025 Oil Market Report, OPEC+ supply is expected to rise sharply by around 2.1 mbpd in 2025 while demand is expanding at a more modest pace (~700 kbpd). This implies continued tightness in the market but also calls for careful adaptability.
June saw global crude inventories grow, especially in China. OPEC+’s measured supply increases should coincide with reduced stockpiles, helping maintain Brent prices amid geopolitical strains and refining demand.